18 straight pre-election Redskins games have predicted presidency

By Nate Bloomquist
nbloomquist@greenbaypressgazette.com

John Kerry’s strongest ally in the battle for the White House could be the Green Bay Packers.

A 72-year-old connection between how the Washington Redskins and their predecessor fare in the game before a presidential election and the election’s outcome puts the Packers in Kerry’s corner. The Packers play the Redskins at FedEx Field on Oct. 31; the election is Nov. 2.

If the Redskins lose or tie the game before the presidential election, the party in the White House gets ousted. A Redskins win is a win for the incumbent party, too. At least, that’s how it has played out in the past 18 presidential elections.

The Redskins, who were the Boston Braves in 1932 and the Boston Redskins in 1936, have predicted the election with better accuracy than Punxsutawney Phil forecasts the weather ever since a 1932 pre-election game with the Chicago Bears ended in a 7-7 tie. The Republicans and President Herbert Hoover were sent packing when Franklin Roosevelt won a landslide election the following Tuesday.

U.S. Rep. Mark Green, a Republican from Green Bay and an avid Packers fan, said he couldn’t decide whom to root for in the Oct. 31 game. One thing’s for sure — the Cheesehead in his Washington, D.C., office won’t move.

“This may just be the toughest decision of my life,” he said. “What I’d like to believe is just as our president and our hometown football team have been making history, the Packers will shatter the historical fallacy and we’ll have both our history and our Packers win.”

The chance that the games and elections results matching up in the last 18 elections is 1 in 263.5 million, more than 2,600 times higher than the chance of being killed by a lightning strike in a lifetime, said Dave Dolan, an assistant professor of statistics at the University of Wisconsin-Green Bay.

That sets it apart from other half-baked theories tying presidential elections and sports together.

For seven straight presidential elections from 1952 to 1976, the baseball World Series predicted the presidential election winner. When an American League team won the series, a Republican won the White House. When a National League team won, a Democrat came out on top.

Dolan thinks the Redskins theory has more staying power.

“I’m sure if you searched databases, you could find a lot of things in sports that you could make relate to the election,” he said. “But this one revolves around a team in Washington, so that’s really something.”

The Tennessee Titans beat the Redskins 27-21 in 2000’s pre-election game with Al Gore in the crowd to cheer on the Titans.

A Kerry campaign spokesman said the Massachusetts senator would leave nothing to fate this time around.

“There’s three things that Cheeseheads ought to know about this campaign going into game day before the election: One, George Bush is a Cowboys fan; two, George Bush has lost nearly 3 million jobs since he was elected; and three, a Packer win means a Kerry win,” Kerry spokesman Bill Burton said. “How many more reasons do folks in Wisconsin need?”

It would be easy for President Bush to root for the home team, but a spokeswoman with his re-election campaign took a different spin.

“Like President Bush, the Packers have a record of being strong on defense,” Bush campaign regional press secretary Merrill Hughes Smith said. “Thank goodness Joe Gibbs is back!”

Green Bay Mayor Jim Schmitt, arguably the city’s biggest Packers fan, said politics finishes second on game days, even if it can predict the future.

“I’m not really big into superstition,” Schmitt said. “There are trends and there’s always exceptions to everything. No matter what political party I’m with, I think the Packers will take precedence over politics.”

Inside the beltway, Redskins pundits are ho-hum about the connection.

“I don’t know anything about the Redskins and the election,” said Redskins radio play-by-play announcer and Hall-of-Famer Sam Huff. “When you’re here in Washington, it doesn’t matter who is president. One is as bad as the other.”

Rep. Mark Green has a backup plan to avoid the political football.

“I’m going to have to track down (longtime Bush adviser) Karl Rove and see if the president can’t get an executive order to change the NFL schedule,” Green said. “This is definitely a big worry.”

http://www.packersnews.com/archives/...15812788.shtml

How the Washington Redskins franchise fared the game before presidential elections, and the elections’ outcomes:

2000: Tennessee 27, Redskins 21... Democrats lose White House (George W. Bush defeats Al Gore)

1996: Redskins 31, Indianapolis 16… Democrats keep it (Bill Clinton defeats Bob Dole)

1992: New York Giants 24, Redskins 7… Republicans lose it (Clinton defeats George H.W. Bush)

1988: Redskins 27, New Orleans 24… Republicans keep it (Bush defeats Michael Dukakis)

1984: Redskins 27, Atlanta 14… Republicans keep it (Ronald Reagan defeats Walter Mondale)

1980: Minnesota 39, Redskins 14… Democrats lose it (Reagan defeats Jimmy Carter)

1976: Dallas 20, Redskins 7… Republicans lose it (Carter defeats Gerald Ford)

1972: Redskins 35, New York Jets 17… Republicans keep it (Richard Nixon defeats George McGovern)

1968: Minnesota 27, Redskins 13… Democrats lose it (Nixon defeats Hubert Humphrey)

1964: Redskins 21, Philadelphia 10… Democrats keep it (Lyndon Johnson defeats Barry Goldwater)

1960: Cleveland 31, Redskins 10… Republicans lose it (John Kennedy defeats Nixon)

1956: Redskins 17, Chicago Cardinals 14… Republicans keep it (Dwight Eisenhower defeats Adlai Stevenson)

1952: Pittsburgh 24, Redskins 23… Democrats lose it (Eisenhower defeats Stevenson)

1948: Redskins 51, Boston Yanks 21… Democrats keep it (Harry Truman defeats Thomas Dewey)

1944: Redskins 42, Chi-Pitt 20… Democrats keep it (Franklin Roosevelt defeats Dewey)

1940: Washington Redskins 37, Pittsburgh 10… Democrats keep it (Roosevelt defeats Wendell Willkie)

1936: Boston Redskins 13, Chicago Cardinals 10… Democrats keep it (Roosevelt defeats Alfred Landon)

1932: Boston Braves 7, Chicago Bears 7… Republicans lose it (Roosevelt defeats Herbert Hoover)

[Oxford]

LD...Here's another truism...When the combined score in one game of the K.C. Chiefs and their opponents is 80 points or higher, someone by the last name of Bush has won every time. :nod: :right: :cheer:

Is Redskins Defeat a Superstition, or Accurate Prediction?
Updated: Sunday, Oct. 31, 2004 - 5:11 PM

LANDOVER, Md. (AP) - Since 1936, the outcome of the Redskins' last home game before the election has correctly predicted the winner of the election.
For superstitious John Kerry supporters, Sunday's Washington Redskins defeat is reason to celebrate. Equally superstitious supporters of President Bush have cause to worry.

It goes like this: Every time the Redskins have won, the incumbent party has also won. Likewise, every Washington loss has been matched by a victory by the challenging party.

But the Redskins lost to Green Bay today, 28-to-14.

(Copyright 2004 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)

[11c_infantry]

If kerry wins, it'll be because a bunch of 'tards voted for him, many of them several times, and not because of some feetsball game.

[Oxford]

Aint that the truth! :nod: :right:

[Sniper[MI]]

Who won? The skins or the Green and Gold GOOFBALLS of the Grid Iron?

[Oxford]

The Redskins lost 28-14 to the Green Bay Packers at home.%$#*&^%$ Those bums!

[Thrawn]

Hit the deck! kerry incoming! lol

[ducktapehero]

Another fact, Missouri has voted for the winner in every presidential election since 1956. Bush will probably take Missouri.

[Despoiler]

Another fact, my wife has voted for the loser in every presidential election since 1992. She is voting for Bush.

[Thrawn]

You're not helping.....

[Jesse]

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/ind...?topic=11781.0

[whirlwind]

personally i dont believe in luck or happenstance like this thing about the redskins,or a curse on the red sox or the cubs.

[NRAJOE]

A pox upon Skerry Kerry....

[Shaun]

last time I checked I don't use brain dead sports players to choose my representatives

[Dallas]

Well the Skins lost yesterday, the interresting thing is that we had a TD called back by a non exsistant penality. The momentum of the game was changed and we lost. Even the announcers on the TV couldn't figure out why the penalty was called. Hmmmmm, stolen game, stolen election? Stranger things have happened. The Monday morning water cooler talk is that the ref who threw the flag was a Democrat.

[Jesse]

Clinton 1, Redskins 0
On Tuesday we discussed the "Redskins rule," according to which if the Washington NFL team wins its last game before a presidential election, the incumbent party prevails; otherwise, it goes down to defeat. "As in sports," we noted, quoting an earlier article of ours, "streaks and slumps in politics go on only until they end."

Well, it turns out this particular streak already ended, eight years ago. According to blogger Justin Taylor, on whose posting we relied, the Redskins beat the Indianapolis Colts in 1996's last pre-election game, and the incumbent, Bill Clinton, was re-elected.

It's true of course that Clinton won, and the Redskins did beat the Colts, 31-16--but that game took place Oct. 27, eight years ago yesterday. On Nov. 3, the 7-1 Skins lost to the 5-3 Buffalo Bills, 38-13--and the incumbent president won two days later.

http://www.opinionjournal.com/best/?id=110005819

[silentknight]

Originally Posted by Jesse

It's true of course that Clinton won, and the Redskins did beat the Colts, 31-16--but that game took place Oct. 27, eight years ago yesterday. On Nov. 3, the 7-1 Skins lost to the 5-3 Buffalo Bills, 38-13--and the incumbent president won two days later.

maybe its not the Redskins, but the Colts. They lost then and the incumbent sayed in and they lost yesterday to the Chiefs. Oh well no matter what happens tomorrow at least the Chiefs won (sorry I'll shut up now)

I've been betting money on Kerry I hope I lose :right: