August 3, 2005
Tropics should stir to life with unusual tenacity
NOAA predicts more storms, based warm sea, lack of shear
BY RICK NEALE
FLORIDA TODAY
Another busy season. Pete Godke, owner of Ann Lia Gift Shop in Cocoa Beach, displays a special T-shirt after 2004's outbreak of hurricanes in Florida. File image by Tim Shortt, FLORIDA TODAY
In the spring, weather officials warned Florida residents to brace for another tree-snapping, wave-crashing, roof-rattling hurricane season.
It turns out, those omens of danger and destruction fell on the conservative side.
On Tuesday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration updated its tropical prediction, saying more hurricanes will roar to life between now and November, including three to five major storms packing winds in excess of 110 mph. In all, this season could bring as many as 21 storms.
As if on cue late Tuesday, the eighth tropical depression formed in the Atlantic Ocean off Bermuda and was expected to turn into Tropical Storm Harvey overnight. Early forecast put it out to sea and away from the U.S.
"That's too many storms. That's way too many storms," said Bob Lay, Brevard County's emergency management director.
"Hurricane season lasts until the end of November -- and it's going to be a long time without anyone going on vacation or leave."
In May, NOAA thought seven to nine hurricanes -- still an above-average assault -- would form during the entire 2005 season. On Tuesday, the agency revised its estimate to nine to 11 hurricanes, for a couple of reasons. First, storm-friendly atmospheric and oceanic conditions remain unchanged, and second, the unprecedented June-July assault forced researchers to boost the numbers, said Gerry Bell, NOAA lead meteorologist.
"This is not the 1970s, '80s and early '90s, when maybe only one hurricane struck the U.S.," Bell said. "This is a new era. The bulk of the hurricane activity is still to come."
Of particular note, Bell said: Hurricane Dennis was born in the Caribbean Sea, and Hurricane Emily whirled to life in the deep tropics of the Atlantic Ocean.
"Hurricanes only form down there when the season's going to be active. And the fact that they already formed there reflects on the very favorable conditions that are out there. It's kind of a tip-off that you're on the right track," he said.
The Atlantic hurricane season extends from June 1 to Nov. 30. The busiest months for hurricanes in our area are August and September. An average season brings 10 tropical storms, six that strengthen into hurricanes and two that become major hurricanes, NOAA reports indicate.
Historically, Bell said hurricane numbers ebb and flow during 20- to 30-year cycles. He said the current, bustling storm cycle started in 1995, when 19 named storms took shape.
"This is nothing new. We're just seeing this come to fruition," he said.
Favorable weather conditions in place across the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic include low air pressure near sea level, above-average ocean temperatures and low vertical wind shear.
Lay said Brevard emergency management personnel are ready for action, if necessary.
"Across the board, I think we're much better prepared. A lot of that has to do with going through those hurricanes last year," Lay said. "Mentally, people are better prepared. I think physically, we're better prepared."
At Ace Hardware in Melbourne, paint manager Joe Cooke said prophecies of extra hurricanes could send even more people scurrying to the store. Storm supply sales are already up from last year, including batteries, masonry screws and other shutter-mounting hardware.
"Paint's been going off the shelf, roofing material's still going quick. Screens are out (of stock) everywhere. Last year, there wasn't much preparation until the first two storms struck. Then people got kind of frantic."
Contact Neale at 242-3638 or
rneale@flatoday.net 
Better be careful, "they'll" "delete the :joker: like "they" do the threads "they" don't like! 
.i wonder if that someone is trying to up above is trying to say something. i wonder what would have happened if ya'll wasn't the state that made the diference .
