Medium time lurker, first time poster. I really like the site and have already learned a ton of things. A quick about me: I've just become recently interested in the SHTF scenario, I know jack about guns, I want to learn everything, and my day job is as a paramedic.
I think that gives a general feel about what I know and where I'm coming from.
That said, I have two questions... purely hypothetical and obviously highly opinionated.
1) Out of all the SHTF scenarios, which do you think is most probable? Nuclear war, pandemic, massive natural disaster, meteor (still natural disaster? hehe), etc.
2) In the aftermath of what you think the most likely scenario, do you foresee your current location and situation as holding together, or as in bugging out? Example: Small town escapes the brunt of a nuclear war, and bands together to try and maintain one corner of lawfulness -- OR -- you head for the hills and just try and stick it out alone, with your immediate family?
A little more wordy then I intended, but wanted to make sure I explained myself well enough. I haven't seen anything but good responses from the lot of you, so I'm really curious what you all think on this.
Welcome to G&G!
It's never too late to start prepping, though you are starting a little late in the game.
My take is the single biggest possibility nationwide is the economy going in the toilet, massive layoffs, increased crime and a resulting declaration of Martial Law.
Locally, Hurricane Season is coming, and the flu seson is kicking off way early, with the current Mexican Flu. The MSM and FedGov has it blown way out of proportion, as the regular flu has already killed thousands in this nation this year alone. Still, it will be used to further the FedGov agenda.
Basically, I will be hunkering down here at home, unless the Jackboots come calling, then I BO into the deep swampwoods. But I am too old and not in great health, to be doing any load-humping and gueriila-war.
Welcome to the forums Iam an emt myself it does give you a better understanding on the first aid aspect of things.. That being said I have a lot to still learn myself. Id say the worst case was stated above martial law... But in the area I live in we don't get much snow but every 10 years we get a blizzard which makes impossible to get supplies and if you can get to store most people are not prepared so they clean the store out of water, food and other things.
Welcome Apneic. In my opinion, you should plan for the most likely event for YOUR specific region. Some parts of the country are less prone to natural disasters than others. I don't put much weight into the nuclear war aftermath scenario. Mostly because the prospect of all our nuclear war is so remote its not worth contemplating. Nuclear attack from terrorists? Maybe. But then you are dealing with one device in one area. Basically, if it is within 100 miles of you, your solution will be to leave and get even farther away.
Dealing with our current times, I'm dealing more with the potential for economic depression, massive increase in crime, and short/nonexistent supply and resource type of stuff. In my area we deal with blizzards, flooding (below me - we are above the flood plane at my place) and an occasional tornado. Power outages and accessibility of supplies is our big concern.
My main concern is another Great Depression. People aren't prepared for that nowadays and will quickly devolve into barbarian hordes. I really hope and pray that we pull out safely and quickly, but I'm not too confident. Natural disasters I'm already as well prepared for as I can be. I'm not in a bad region as far as that goes, no earthquakes, fires, mudslides, floods, or hurricanes. Just possibly tornadoes and moderate short-term ice storms. As for global war, not very many can prepare adequately for that anyway. Biological event would just mean that most would die no matter how ya prepare. "Live like you'll die tomorrow, plan like you'll live 100 years"
i think more likely for massive natural disasters and medical emergencies, so I agree that you should prepare for the most likely (of the unlikely situations) for your specific area. depending on the situation, likely to be bugging in, so water, food, general supplies and medicine preps.
I don't really worry too much about what the shtf scenario is. I prepare the same way for about everything. And I have prepared for both instances. Staying home, or bugging out. Just make sure you get plenty of stuff that is easy to leave with should you want too. You can always keep it in the house if you decide to fortify.
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"Strength is not in numbers, it's in singular determination."
Of man made events #1 is our Government declaring Martial Law and trying to take our guns. #2 is an economic crash causing food, water and shelter shortages causing criminal violence to take a sharp upswing as the criminals try to take supplies from the citizens.#3 is terrorist attacks, some involving nuclear devises and some involving chemical and biological warfare methods. There are some particularly nasty things available in our own CBW labs.
On the natural events side, I feel that in my lifetime or that of my children, the Super Volcano underneath Yellowstone Nat'l Park will erupt.
If you are too near the epicenter of any of these events chances of survival is very limited. If you are farther away, then survival will be possible for those who have shelter, food, water, medical supplies, weapons, and ammunition.
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I don't worry at all about SHTF possibilites. However, I make some preparation for the more likely event(s) that might affect the region I live in. In my case, the most likely worst case is a nuclear power plant melt down. That would probably require bugging out pretty quickly until the "dust settles" and there is a determination as to just how bad the situation is and how far away from the plant is most likely safe.
In the event of civil disorder or a break down of our society due to economic issues, nuclear attack, coordinated nuclear terrorist attack, major earthquake such as the New Madrid or one of the faults along the California (San Andreas etc.), hurricane, astroid impact, super volcano, etc., the best approach is generally to stay put where you have the best social connections and your house/belongings if it is possible. More than likely, neighborhood groups would band together for the common good. I don't think you'll survive by yourself (mountain man). The issues will be food, fresh water, transportation, security, and medical care.
If you prepare for a month of living from stores in your home, you are probably better prepared than 90% of the entire population of the USA.
(T)he best approach is generally to stay put where you have the best social connections and your house/belongings if it is possible. More than likely, neighborhood groups would band together for the common good. I don't think you'll survive by yourself (mountain man). The issues will be food, fresh water, transportation, security, and medical care.
If you prepare for a month of living from stores in your home, you are probably better prepared than 90% of the entire population of the USA.
+1 ^ ^ ^
While I still worry about the Zombie Horde showing up (it's not a matter of 'If', it's a matter of 'When'!) the biggest issue I can see is the economic troubles, followed by a severe natural disaster (aren't we due for an earthquake in CA soon?).
Basically we are already in a 3 year drought, and worst case scenario is limited access to basic necessities, like water. I always have bottled water anyway, and keeping some non-perishable food on hand is also a great idea.
I use it to justify having some nice camping gear!
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I take my coffee how I take my women: bitter and overbearing.
Aside from geoligical natural disasters I would say civil unrest. The current political climate leads me to belive we may have a political revolution in my lifetime.
Great responses here by all, and I appreciate the input from all sides.
Is it fair to assume that many of you believe a SHTF scenario would be a limited time situation, such as 2 to 3 months of lawlessness and self reliance, possibly lasting as long as a year?
Part of me hopes that something horrible would last with only a short time-span, but the ancient boy scout in me wonders what happens if the world flat out ends. As in, loss of electrical power, scavenging for fuel (ala Madmax), etc. To that end, I keep looking at learning things that can be accomplished and can still work when there is no power.
For the record, I am also a fan of Z-day. If nothing else, I could hope that it would bring about a more global unity, as all nations would have to work together against a common enemy, hehe.
Some of you have mentioned the government declaring martial law and coming for your weapons... can you further speculate on how you think that would progress? I cannot see how it would be done effectively, but on the other hand, if they did it secretly, I'm not sure how they could be stopped.
read up on katrina. they disarmed the populace very effeciently. try this out for instance. things are goin pretty bad economics wise,the prez or whoever says" its martial law time". so they instantly takeover all food stuffs and begin a gun for food swaps. after 2 weeks in your house with the feds controlling all supplies you'll gladly hand them your guns to help feed your family(which is why some choose to plan for longer stays or to bo). and before you say "can't happen" tell me how a gun owning man living in a high rise will be able to feed his kids with a gun and no place to use it? 3/4 of the population live off the bounty of others and have zero way of hunting,fishing, ect.
The gun-grabbing will work somewhat in the big cities, far less so in smaller towns and basically not at all in the rural areas.
If the crime gets bad enough, I expect the city and county cops will be put to use guarding the Previledged Elite, not running around taking the guns from citizens. The few that try will learn their lesson the hard way.
But the big cities will become pest holes.
I don't expect an absolute loss of civilization and reduction to the stone age.
But, as the economy tanks, we WILL have to change our ways of living and learn new skills. The people during the Great Depression learned well - I wonder about today's "me,me,me!" society. Can't eat a big-screen TV or Nike sneakers!
1. Economic meltdown on the order of what happened to the Weimar Republic, and possibly with the same results as what happened there. Perhaps faster; Mister Charismatic Leader is already in office, God save us. This might or might not lead to No. 3.
2. Worldwide epidemic of something as lethal as the so-called "Spanish flu" of 1918 or worse, like perhaps a pneumonic variant of Ebola. Part of what contained the epidemic back then and allowed it to burn out was the comparative slow speed of international travel. But airliners move more people across the Atlantic and the Pacific every day than all the liners of 1918 that serviced the United States did in a month. And cities are bigger now, with a higher percentage of the national population living in them. This would lead to a rapid but non-catastrophic breakdown of civilization. The equipment would still be here, but there wouldn't be anyone who knows how to operate and maintain it, nor the workforce to support it all. Keeping a civilization going is a full time job, and a die-off of enough people could easily destroy it.
3. Revolution against the central government if the central government became much more oppressive than it is now. Attempting to legislate our Second Amendment rights out of existence might well trigger this one. In this scenario, what might happen is simply regime change, with the People removing something like 70% of legislators - the ones that they regard as either elitist scum or rulers rather than servants. The trouble would come after the leftists who want to trample our Constitutional rights were gone and the revolutionary leadeship called for a new constitutional convention. Could the current Constitution be rewritten in a way to satisfy everyone, or would civil war break out between the Second Amendment Absolutists, many of whom want to outlaw abortion and medical research; and the more liberal do-what-you-want-as-long-as-it-doesn't-hurt-anyone else crowd? The only points I'm sure all these Zen revolutionaries would agree upon is to drop the prefactory clause from the Second Amendment and require term limits for all public officials, following which they'd have to find honest employment. (We might want to think about banning lawyers from elected office, but that's a pet peeve of my own.)
4. The natural disaster of an asteroid strike. A big enough one could induce Fimbulwinter, the blotting out of the sun with ejected dust some scientists maintain killed the dinosaurs. As far as I know, neither the United States nor the Soviet Union has a contingency plan for intercepting and exploding or using thrusters of some sort to change the orbit of the asteriod in place. There are lots of plans in filing cabinets, but nothing in place that might really work.
Don't get upset but it would'nt hurt makeing peace with your maker before any of these events or SHTF's happen.
I believe were past due of haveing some kind of Naural Disaster, Man Made or Economic.
Some of you have mentioned the government declaring martial law and coming for your weapons... can you further speculate on how you think that would progress? I cannot see how it would be done effectively, .
I'm sure we would all love to discuss this but every time we try to do so in any meaningful way lately, the thread gets deleted. Especially if it was started by me. LoL
Iam an emt myself it does give you a better understanding on the first aid aspect of things.. That being said I have a lot to still learn myself. Id say the worst case was stated above martial law... But in the area I live in we don't get much snow but every 10 years we get a blizzard which makes impossible to get supplies and if you can get to store most people are not prepared so they clean the store out of water, food and other things.
