[Mooseman684]

Quote:       Originally Posted by blueice

SPOT MARKET IS OPEN closes in 17 hrs. 47 mins. Feb 07, 2010 23:28 NY Time Bid/Ask 1066.40 - 1067.40 Low/High 1063.30 - 1072.00 Change +1.40 +0.13% 30daychg -71.70 -6.30% 1yearchg +151.90 +16.61% Charts... The wife and I recently took positions in miners, about two weeks ago (1151 gold) and have lost 20% of our of our investments...

I dont know what "positions in Miners" is...And I hope it is Not Paper Gold futures !
WIth Gold you Must BUY the Actual gold and Have it in Hand and stay in for the Long Haul...It is Gonna keep increasing in Value , or Have Tradeable Value if Paper Money is worthless. If you are playing the Market to make Money with gold Futures , etc. you didnt read the above posts...Gold fluctuates and when the price hit an all time high , some Investors dumped gold for cash ,hence the drop in price...It will come back up. Gold is Not a short term "Make lots of Money Scheme"...Had you Bought Gold in 2001-2002 you would be at a 400% Profit Margin now...For an 8 to 9 year investment.

[Deep13]

"Are you guys buying silver/gold?"

Nope, lead.

[blueice]

Quote:       Originally Posted by rondog

This is a current 10-year chart of gold prices. This is a current 10-year chart of silver prices. As you can see, there's been a lot of volatility, ups and downs, gains and corrections. But, the overall 10-year trend is steadily UP for both.

Yes, nice charts RonDog! It did this without the helf of inflation...

Quote:       Originally Posted by Mooseman684

I dont know what "positions in Miners" is...And I hope it is Not Paper Gold futures !

Only common stock of gold companies, Mooseman...

[Rex in OTZ]

I guess the way things would go around here would be Gasoline (aka Mad Max) then weapons and Ammo, Meds,Food stuffs, gold and silver seem pretty far down the list, a good 5 gallon bucket be worth more than a useless coin that coin wouldent haul water or be used to haul dirt, bail yer boat, haul food in.
Goats, Sheep, Chickens, Rabbits, yoke of oxen , grain seed like wheat, rye, oats or a rusty old dull plow all rank higher than coins.
In my area it'd be a good team of dogs sled and a boat

[Mooseman684]

Quote:       Originally Posted by blueice

Yes, nice charts RonDog! It did this without the helf of inflation... Only common stock of gold companies, Mooseman...

STock in companies is a hit or miss thing...I would never invest in Gold mining companies, as I have seen too many of them fail. I think Cambior is gonna open a huge mine about 75 miles north of me for Gold, platinum,and possibly chromium...

[Sam Ruger]

Quote:      

Quote:       Originally Posted by Deep13 "Are you guys buying silver/gold?" Nope, lead.

I agree with this poster. The lead I bought two weeks ago at Wally World I can resell on an internet auction for at least twice what I paid for it.

Current gold prices reflect MASSIVE SPECULATION by unknowledgeable people. Oh! Sure! Gold will go up but, when you watch silver follow gold (silver being the "poor man's" gold), it's a sign morons are in the market buying because no country wishing to protect its currency would buy silver. That's not a hedge, that's a hole with no bottom. If you're buying silver, Kiss Your Assets Goodbye!

The biggest metal buy today is copper.

[blueice]

Quote:       Originally Posted by Sam Ruger

Current gold prices reflect MASSIVE SPECULATION by unknowledgeable people.

No so, Sam...Today's buyers include numerous institutions and leading investment advisers...

Gold prices of today reflect economic uncertainties; worldwide debt not only among consumers, but also governmental units...

Until these issue are dealt with PMs prices will continue to appreciate...

Gold and Interest Rates, 1979-80

Gold was hammered on Friday as investors stampeded out of a crowded trade, me included. The impetus for the sharp decline was the stronger than expected jobs report, and a fear that the Fed would start raising interest rates and withdrawing quantitative easing sooner than expected.


But does higher interest rates automatically mean lower gold prices? The answer eventually is "yes" but not necessarily immediately. In the last peak during the 1979-80 run-up, yields on the 10-year T-bond rose from 9% to 11% as gold rose from $200 to $850.


This does not mean that gold is impervious to rising interest rates in the short-term. Gold may have topped. However, it does not mean that gold has topped.


Remember, tech stocks kept rising when interest rates rose in the late 1990s, and housing prices went up this decade as the Fed tightened. Asset bubbles usually do not pop at the beginning of the tightening cycle. Asset bubble usually pop near the end of the tightening cycle.


Again, that does not mean that gold has not popped. Gold may have. These are not usual times. The amount of monetary and fiscal stimulus in the economy is unlike anything we have experienced before, which is almost certainly changing the dynamics of asset markets. However, do not assume that simply because interest rates may start rising soon, the gold run is over.


My guess is, that after the November elections interest rates will increase...What remains to be answered is why and how high...

[tommy]

well if the shtf and someone showed up in our group wanting to trade gold for food or anything i would turn them away. you can't eat gold . it has no value to keep you alive it can't start fires for you it can't be shot out of your gun and if i had the choice i would carry food/ammo and any other thing i can for my survival instead of gold. gold is for the rich people who think just wealth will get you through the tough times well in my book or world food/gas/ammo will get you through the tough time not gold.

[M14man]

I'm with you Tommy! But it will depend on how severe the collapse is.If there is some semblance of order,gold will be valuable. We go back to the stoneage, ammo will be the 'gold'.

[tommy]

down here ammo/food/gas is gold oh wait batteries too but gold is gold not much you can do with it you can't walk into a gas station after a huricane and ask hey i'll give you some gold for some food and gas if you did they would just say we only take cash. now if it was a deeper disaster where there was no gas stations open and food was short gold still wouldn't be worth nuthin. someone could show up with a truck load of gold bars and ask to trade for some gas and i would turn them away. gold is for the unprepaired who plan to trade it for food from the people who spent their money of the real stuff like gas/food/and you know the stuff you need to get by on. gold has no value to me even in todays world it has no value i don't wear it and don't buy it for myself . now the wife she likes her gold and diamond rings me i rather go drop a grand on ammo or guns rather than a grand on a new ring.

[alwaysaz]

Quote:       Originally Posted by blueice

No so, Sam...Today's buyers include numerous institutions and leading investment advisers... Gold prices of today reflect economic uncertainties; worldwide debt not only among consumers, but also governmental units... Until these issue are dealt with PMs prices will continue to appreciate... Gold and Interest Rates, 1979-80 Gold was hammered on Friday as investors stampeded out of a crowded trade, me included. The impetus for the sharp decline was the stronger than expected jobs report, and a fear that the Fed would start raising interest rates and withdrawing quantitative easing sooner than expected. But does higher interest rates automatically mean lower gold prices? The answer eventually is "yes" but not necessarily immediately. In the last peak during the 1979-80 run-up, yields on the 10-year T-bond rose from 9% to 11% as gold rose from $200 to $850. This does not mean that gold is impervious to rising interest rates in the short-term. Gold may have topped. However, it does not mean that gold has topped. Remember, tech stocks kept rising when interest rates rose in the late 1990s, and housing prices went up this decade as the Fed tightened. Asset bubbles usually do not pop at the beginning of the tightening cycle. Asset bubble usually pop near the end of the tightening cycle. Again, that does not mean that gold has not popped. Gold may have. These are not usual times. The amount of monetary and fiscal stimulus in the economy is unlike anything we have experienced before, which is almost certainly changing the dynamics of asset markets. However, do not assume that simply because interest rates may start rising soon, the gold run is over. My guess is, that after the November elections interest rates will increase...What remains to be answered is why and how high...

I remember Internet stocks were a can't miss wave of the future in 2001. Anyone who said otherwise was a fool.

"Realestate has never lost value" and "they aren't making any more land" "buy as much as you can now before it's all too expensive" was the cry of the next wave of experts.

Look at the 30 year history of Gold. Unless a market fundamental really has changed for the long term, it may be overvalued. Perhaps there truly have been lasting gold market changes and it may be undervalued.

It looks like an "investment" I would expect to find in a casino. But I may be wrong. Either way, I am comfortable sitting on the sideline in the gold and silver market. If gold drops to the $600 dollar range and everyone is saying to sell what you have, then I may look at it again.

[blueice]

Quote:       Originally Posted by alwaysaz

I remember Internet stocks were a can't miss wave of the future in 2001. Anyone who said otherwise was a fool. High PEs gave warnings to anyone willing to listen... "Realestate has never lost value" and "they aren't making any more land" "buy as much as you can now before it's all too expensive" was the cry of the next wave of experts. In part, due to increased leveraging helf bring about price distortions, in both residential and commercial real estate..The word real became blurred or lost... Look at the 30 year history of Gold. Unless a market fundamental really has changed for the long term, it may be overvalued. Perhaps there truly have been lasting gold market changes and it may be undervalued. The precious metal industry has entered the mainstream.. It looks like an "investment" I would expect to find in a casino. But I may be wrong. Either way, I am comfortable sitting on the sideline in the gold and silver market. If gold drops to the $600 dollar range and everyone is saying to sell what you have, then I may look at it again.

It has and always will, have a higher stored value then paper currency, which unlike the former, is subject to unwanted manipulations...

Tommy, sooner or later, your consumable are going to run out and then what... Hard assets will always a some value and a market...

[ArkansasHunter]

If money becomes worthless then what would you sell gold for ??? Goods and Service's ???

If paper money became worthless and you have gold and have to use it I wonder what gold would be worth then.

Would it be worth what you paid ? Or would it be worth what you would recieve for it during a depressed time ?

Sure there will be people take your gold as payment for something but I'd almost bet it would'nt be worth what you paid for it if a grave SHTF were to happen and you would probably soon use up your gold, then what would you do ?

A better bet is to give your life to Jesus Christ, start tithing what money you earn and giveing offering to worth while organization and if the day come's of seriously bad time's God will provide for you and your family and if you die you'll sure go to a lot better place than your at right now, that's a promise...A.H

[Sam Ruger]

Quote:       Originally Posted by blueice

No so, Sam...Today's buyers include numerous institutions and leading investment advisers...

Who are all SPECULATORS. Institutions buy on behalf of private individuals. Do you think your local bank is buying gold? Smith-Barney? Goldman Sachs?

Buying gold is done for jewelry first and as a hedge against currency devaluation second. It is used as a currency hedge due to the speed by which dollars can be converted to gold and then back again (That is, if you don’t take physical possession of it. If you take physical possession of it in bars, then those bars must be assayed when you want to convert to cash again, and you must pay that fee. There are also fees (called “premiums”) connected to buying and selling gold coins, usually $ 60 per ounce both ways.).

Currency hedge devaluations affect only the currency you deal in. For example, the British pound is falling right now. The price of gold is rising in Britain but not in the US. That’s because Americans hold US dollars and not pounds. A few weeks ago the Euro was falling but that did not affect the price we pay for gold either.

Due to gold’s ease of storage and the established trading markets, gold can/will rise as the US dollar falls and the current momentum is, indeed, downwards. Currency SPECULATORS will buy gold and hold it while the US dollar is falling and then convert it back to dollars at times when the US dollar stops falling or shows signs of strength. During this interval of SPECULATION the price of gold rises.

Gold speculators pay two different prices in order to speculate in gold. First they must pay the assay fee or the premium. For example, the price of gold is around $ 1,125.00 an ounce today. With the $ 60 premium, a one ounce Krugerand would cost you $ 1,185.00 . To sell that same coin would cost you the $ 60 premium again. Therefore, just to break even, the price of gold must rise from the $ 1,125.00 price today to $ 1,245.00 in the future or by the $ 120 premium. Thus, if the price of gold rises 10%, you’ll do no better than break even.

The second price a gold speculator pays is that, as gold rises in value, there is another force dragging it back down. Jewelers currently cease buying gold if it rises above $ 1,200.00 an ounce. Outside of SPECULATORS, jewelers are the major purchaser of gold. Thus, as SPECULATORS bid the price above $ 1,200.00 they have no one else to it sell to except OTHER SPECULATORS. Thus, while SPECULATORS set the high end value of gold, jewelers set the low end value for gold – And there can be a huge difference between the two. Gold once rose to nearly $ 900.00 an ounce on SPECULATION. You show it in your chart below. What your chart doesn’t show is that it then fell back to $ 300.00 to the jeweler’s price. That was a 67% spread between what we can call the ARTIFICIAL price of gold and the ACTUAL price of gold.

Gold SPECULATORS buying at today’s prices are betting the price of gold will rise more than another 10% which will not happen if 1) interest rates are raised or 2) foreigners start buying US dollars. The first is almost certain to happen near the end of 2010 and the other is unpredictable. Gold is such an uncertainty that even China, the world’s biggest glutton for gold, only holds 2% of its reserves in gold.

Anyone buying gold today at the ARTIFICIAL price won’t have to wait too awfully long to see the ACTUAL price if things go as predicted interest rate wise.

That’s why most of the posters here, on a survival forum, recognized that gold would be useless to own in a SHTF situation. You can’t eat it and you can’t buy anything with it. You might find yourself swapping an ounce of gold for a head of lettuce.

Now! In a SHTF situation where the Federal Reserve decides to pay off the national debt in printed currency and we get massive inflation, then owning gold will keep up with inflation. But, for that matter, so should your house.

Quote:      

Gold prices of today reflect economic uncertainties; worldwide debt not only among consumers, but also governmental units... Until these issue are dealt with PMs prices will continue to appreciate... Gold and Interest Rates, 1979-80 Gold was hammered on Friday as investors stampeded out of a crowded trade, me included. The impetus for the sharp decline was the stronger than expected jobs report, and a fear that the Fed would start raising interest rates and withdrawing quantitative easing sooner than expected. But does higher interest rates automatically mean lower gold prices? The answer eventually is "yes" but not necessarily immediately. In the last peak during the 1979-80 run-up, yields on the 10-year T-bond rose from 9% to 11% as gold rose from $200 to $850. This does not mean that gold is impervious to rising interest rates in the short-term. Gold may have topped. However, it does not mean that gold has topped. Remember, tech stocks kept rising when interest rates rose in the late 1990s, and housing prices went up this decade as the Fed tightened. Asset bubbles usually do not pop at the beginning of the tightening cycle. Asset bubble usually pop near the end of the tightening cycle. Again, that does not mean that gold has not popped. Gold may have. These are not usual times. The amount of monetary and fiscal stimulus in the economy is unlike anything we have experienced before, which is almost certainly changing the dynamics of asset markets. However, do not assume that simply because interest rates may start rising soon, the gold run is over. My guess is, that after the November elections interest rates will increase...What remains to be answered is why and how high...

“Why” will be 7-8% annual inflation and “how high” will be 7-8% interest. I agree with your “When”.

[Deep13]

Well, I'm not buying gold because one cannot eat shiny metal things however pretty they are. People might trade for bullets or usuable commodities, but not for something with merely symbolic value. With respect, A.H., I'm convinced we have exactly one life and place no credence in supernatural solutions.

There are reasonable steps one can take to endure various calamities, but a complete collapse of civilization into chaos is probably unsurvivable. The end of municipal water would make most cities empty in less than a week. If Yellowstone Caldera has a major eruption, anyone in the western states would probably die at once while the rest of the contitnent would be gone within a month. Imagine Haiti on a continent-wide scale, but with most water poisoned and most crops buried under ash. And yeah, someone will say that if they can hunt and fish, they can eat. Still, there aren't THAT many squirrels around and fish don't swim in poisoned lakes. Suppose increased warming keeps drying up the farm lands and cuts off water to cities that depend on mountain sources?

I really don't have to worry about surviving a nation or civilization ending event because I will have died trying to save both. I'd rather die a hero and emulate the 300 than escape like the 144,000.

[NRAJOE]

Quote:       Originally Posted by Deep13

"Are you guys buying silver/gold?" Nope, lead.

Ditto...ammo will be the new currency in a SHTF world.

[Ten Man]

Here's a little article that has some valuable insight on the subject.

Doug Casey on Surviving Financial Apocalypse Now

By Doug Casey
Mar 12 2010 9:59AM

Casey Research - Intensely Curious, Focused on Facts

L: Doug, last time we spoke, you said quite a bit about debt, in the context of your expectation that the euro is on its way out. At the end of that conversation, you mentioned, of course, that the problem is not limited to Greece, nor the eurozone. America as a country has become a world-class debtor, and many Americans seem to think a maxed-out credit card is a reason to get a higher credit limit, not to economize. It’s like a global epidemic. Let’s talk about debt.

Doug: Sure. This is a story that’s going to end very badly for a lot of people. I’ve said this before, in many different ways, but I think it’s worth saying again, because most people just don’t grok it…

L: Grok. From the Martian word for “drink” and “understand.” In Heinlein’s novels, water was a critical element of Martian culture – makes sense, for a desert planet. When you grok knowledge, as when you drink water, you don’t just hold it in your mouth and spit it out. You take it into yourself, it goes into your blood, and eventually into every cell in your body; it becomes part of you. This is heavy-duty understanding… Sorry for jumping in with the spontaneous lecture. I just suspect many readers will not know the term.

Doug: Or put another way, in the negative case, most people just don’t get what money really is – and what it isn’t. They take it as a given, as part of the cosmic firmament. But it’s not. A prime example of this is the mistaking of debt for money, a phenomenon David Galland pointed out in a Casey’s Daily Dispatch a few weeks ago. This is why the entire world’s monetary system today is headed for a disastrous failure. And this is absolutely inevitable. There’s no way around it.

L: Why?

Doug: Because you can’t use debt as money. As I’ve pointed out before, Aristotle, in the fourth century BC, was the first person to define what money is. And what is it? It’s a store of value and a medium of exchange.

The paper we use today is a medium of exchange – it got that way because governments made it illegal not to accept it – but it’s not a good store of value. And it’s rapidly and radically becoming less of a store of value. What we use as money today is actually not money; it’s currency. Technically, that’s simply a word that indicates a government substitute for money.

What does make for good money? Again, Aristotle gives us the answer. It’s something that has five characteristics: it’s durable and divisible, consistent and convenient, and has value in itself.

L: Some of our readers who’ve studied Austrian economics challenged us on that last bit, last time we talked about gold, because, as the Austrians pointed out, value is subjective. But you don’t mean some sort of value that’s independent of people making value judgments. You mean that people value something that makes for good money, because of its innate qualities – not something “valued” because of government threats of force.

Doug: Right. And for these reasons, gold is almost certainly the best thing to use for money. Not because I say so, nor because Aristotle said so, but because, over time, people have found it to be the most durable, divisible, consistent, convenient, and inherently valuable thing to use. Silver is also good, but it’s less durable because it corrodes. And less convenient, in that it takes about 60 times more of it – at the moment – to offer the same value as gold. Copper is the next traditional step down the ladder.

L: That, plus one reason that’s pertinent today but was not a problem in Aristotle’s world: gold can’t just be printed up on the arbitrary whims of those in power.

Doug: That’s the big one. Using metals as money takes the whole matter out of the hands of the government and its bureaucrats.

L: But we don’t use gold today…

Doug: No, as per David’s example, it’s as though a bunch of friends without any real money started exchanging IOUs for money, and then after a while forgot that the IOUs were supposed to represent, and be redeemed in, real money.

The problem with this is that, in the case of the IOUs between friends, paper is based solely on hope and trust. One can move away, or die, or turn dishonest, or become insolvent – many other things could happen. A guy stuck with a dead man’s IOU has nothing.

With government IOUs, or currencies, it’s worse, because they can increase the number of IOUs in circulation without telling anyone – that’s what inflation is. Since the government creates the IOUs, it gets the benefit of spending them before the inflation they create raises prices, which is basically stealing from the people. And, of course, sometimes governments do “die,” leaving the holders stuck with nothing, just as with the IOUs between friends. In fact, it’s arguably far more likely that such problems will arise from trusting a government to print IOUs than from trusting a friend.

[MosinRuger]

Quote:       Originally Posted by Sam Ruger

I'm investing in brass - particularly Federal and Winchester.

+1 on the brass.

Also, IMO if the S really HTF, usable goods such as canned food, ammo, water purification and medical supplies will be worth more than anything.

[Johnnycat]

Quote:       Originally Posted by MosinRuger

+1 on the brass. Also, IMO if the S really HTF, usable goods such as canned food, ammo, water purification and medical supplies will be worth more than anything.

Initially, yes. At first the "real" and necessary items will be the important ones - food, water, security.

Then after time as things start to somewhat stabilize, things that are portable and have inherent value (gold/silver) will become important again.

[coyotehunter]

johnnycats right long term SHTF gold and silver will be very useful short term not so much though i would like to invest in some silver....not for SHTF but just as a good investment