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Discussion Starter · #1 · (Edited)
There is a geographical reality regarding the threat to Taiwan from communist China that the US cannot overcome: they’re there, and we’re here. Taiwan lies just 75 miles from mainland China. The US is literally an ocean away (and the world’s largest ocean at that).

And that’s not the worst of it. Consider the following table of resources and draw your own conclusions regarding America’s ability to defend Taiwan.
165524


Those numbers are not encouraging, but the real problem is the communists can bring the great mass of their military to bear on Taiwan, whereas the US can't abandon its global commitments, especially in Europe. That means the US numbers above are over-inflated when it comes to defending Taiwan.

But that is not the information that should concern you. The exponential growth in China’s military is what should concern people in the US. From a base level of just $10.09 billion in 1990, China’s military spending grew 127% from 1990 to 2000, 405% 2000 to 2010, and another 126% from 2010 to 2019. Nobody spends that kind of money without a purpose.

Anyone who thinks China doesn’t have an invasion plan for Taiwan is an absolute fool, and the key ingredient to that plan is defeating US forces. The latest DOD calculation of activated Chinese communist forces arrayed against Taiwan (i.e., directly across the Taiwan Strait) include 412,000 ground force personnel, 5 army groups, 30 combined arms brigades, 5 air assault brigades, 5 artillery brigades, 7 airborne brigades, and 4 marine brigades. Those are just the ground forces assigned to “defend” against Taiwan. China has also stationed one advanced aircraft carrier, 23 destroyers, 37 frigates, 2 nuclear attack submarines, and 4 ballistic missile submarines in the Taiwan Strait. For the entire country China has a total of 37 amphibious tank landing ships (which of course are strictly offensive), and 35 of those (95%) are stationed directly across from Taiwan. In the air, they have packed the Taiwan Strait with 600 fighter/interceptor aircraft, 250 attack bombers, and 100 special mission aircraft. China has a total of 777 naval ships compared to the US with 490. China now has 1,970 self-propelled gun vehicles compared to the US with just 1,500.

All of those weapons systems (and much more) are beginning to match, if not exceed, US technology. China became the second country in the world, after the US, to put a fifth-generation stealth fighter into operational service (the mach 2.5 Chengdu J-20). That is not to mention their drone capabilities which some military analysts claim are more advanced than the US.

And whether the US has the intestinal fortitude to defend Taiwan is questionable, to say the least. Let’s face it, America is getting weaker. There is little doubt that America’s current leadership is the weakest in decades, which means communist China has its golden opportunity to move against Taiwan between now and 2024. And worse, our politicians are increasingly putting us in an unsustainable economic position which undercuts our ability to engage China militarily. The ever-growing debt in the US exceeds $28 trillion. Biden wants to add trillions more to that debt. China’s national debt, which is mostly held by its own people in the form of bonds, is not even a quarter of the US in size. As the US goes further into debt we will increasingly struggle to keep pace with China’s expanding military. In many ways, our military is already losing that race. To put it bluntly, the US cannot afford a war with China over Taiwan.

Taiwan’s days are numbered. It will be a massive disaster for the US economically, militarily, and politically. That will be the turning point. That will mark the historical turning point when communist China succeeds the US as the dominant power in the world. Sadly, we will live to see that day of shame. Sooner, not later.
 

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Kellen: Sir; another article from 2014.


Thirdly, I think Mearsheimer understates the degree to which other countries besides the U.S. might come to Taiwan’s aid. Foremost among these is Japan, which is already considering a Taiwan Relations Act of its own. This is a crucial difference between the situation the U.S. faced in seeking regional hegemony in the Western Hemisphere and one that China faces in the Asia-Pacific. Namely, Beijing is surrounded by powerful neighbors, all of whom are adamantly opposed to a return to Chinese regional hegemony. I don’t believe these countries will be weaker collectively than China for some time to come, if ever.
Finally, I would not rule out the possibility that if China becomes too powerful, Taiwan might seek an independent nuclear deterrent before it chooses the “Hong Kong strategy.” It would hardly be the first nation that acquired nuclear weapons to negate a rival’s vastly superior military power because it couldn’t do so through conventional means alone. Furthermore, Taiwan has a fairly robust civilian nuclear program that would make it easy—at least relative to some of the recent proliferators—to acquire a nuclear arsenal. The real challenge would be trying to do so covertly since Beijing might attack Taiwan if it discovered the island’s dash for the bomb.
 

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A president with some brass would recognize Taiwan as China's legitimate government in exhile. Get India, Japan, Vietnam, the Hong Kong protestors, South Korea, Thailand, the Phillipines, and any other SE Asian country with China problems on board with the plan, Park some heavy warships from each nation with warships, and see who blinks first. By my calculation that is nearly 4 million capable troops for China's 2.2 million to stare down the barrel of.
I think Russia would probably claim neutrality, or take the side they think most likely to win.

I don't understand why we fight meaningless wars in godforsaken places that have never known peace, when there are wars worth fighting.
 

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WE have the same problem with Cuba. The Chinese are there, and we are here.
 

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China trying to take Taiwan will happen, and we will know when it is about to go down because prior the attack our grid will go down. I expect it to happen sooner rather than later as Australia has finally realized that their navy is in a shameful state and is doing something to correct it. Japan is also making noise against China. The longer China waits, the stronger their potential adversaries become.
A storm is coming no matter what.
 

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Meh….depends on the political climate in the US. With the current communist regime I’m not hopeful.

BUT

If we can delay things a few years and get another Trumper in there China will NOT risk a direct military confrontation and exchange with the US which is what will happen. Taiwan isn’t HKG and Taiwan WILL put up a military fight. We just have to make sure they’re armed and provide direct US military support.

The US can certainly take out the Chinese threat to other nations. While it couldn’t serve as an occupying force — and wouldn’t want to — Chinese infrastructure is really centralized. Not to mention communist tactics are really inflexible. So they have more to lose than we do; it’s a simple matter of will.
 

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While I wouldn't say never, china going after taiwan after all these years makes little sense other than to just show they can do it and most likely get away with it, or as a diversion to their real goal.
There was a reason china helped slow joe and the bidens cheat their way into the white house. One of the paybacks for that to china is getting the US out of afghanistan asap and we are seeing that right now. Afghanistan and the ******** region has huge amounts of natural resources and might be the worlds largest deposits of Lithium (batteries you know) and china wants to have and control these vast deposits. Now I can't see china making nice with the ********* and I really doubt china will fiddle around like the soviets did and for the most part the US has done the last 20 years. China will go in and clear an area pronto and set up shop and then work on the remainder. The afghans have few allies that are going to help them against china and I think in a real wipe them out conflict the afghans will not do well. Pakistan might be the only close nation that hates china enough to come to the aid of the afghans, the other little istans of the area would just be like the little nations the nazi's run over getting to the main goals. Controlling the resources that are seen as the way of the future will be china's key to being the one and only superpower in the future. Keeping communism afloat takes huge amounts of capital whether you take it from the people thru taxes or by owning the natural resources and taiwan would not make a fly dent in that for china.
 

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While I wouldn't say never, china going after taiwan after all these years makes little sense other than to just show they can do it and most likely get away with it, or as a diversion to their real goal.
There was a reason china helped slow joe and the bidens cheat their way into the white house. One of the paybacks for that to china is getting the US out of afghanistan asap and we are seeing that right now. Afghanistan and the **** region has huge amounts of natural resources and might be the worlds largest deposits of Lithium (batteries you know) and china wants to have and control these vast deposits. Now I can't see china making nice with the * and I really doubt china will fiddle around like the soviets did and for the most part the US has done the last 20 years. China will go in and clear an area pronto and set up shop and then work on the remainder. The afghans have few allies that are going to help them against china and I think in a real wipe them out conflict the afghans will not do well. Pakistan might be the only close nation that hates china enough to come to the aid of the afghans, the other little istans of the area would just be like the little nations the nazi's run over getting to the main goals. Controlling the resources that are seen as the way of the future will be china's key to being the one and only superpower in the future. Keeping communism afloat takes huge amounts of capital whether you take it from the people thru taxes or by owning the natural resources and taiwan would not make a fly dent in that for china.
What, pray tell, did this site decide to censor this time?
 

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^^^

Was wondering the same, but didn’t want to keep asking.
 

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Discussion Starter · #13 ·
We are at a critical moment in history when the US military has to keep its eye on the ball. Watch Taiwan now that Biden's ineptitude has been so starkly exhibited in Afghanistan. Note these recent articles:

Sword rattling directed at Japan over Taiwan (from China Daily, the Chinese propaganda outlet):

Chinese media chief calls for war against the US over Taiwan (American Military News):

International fallout from Biden's Afghanistan disaster (from Australia):

China's threat against Taiwan "growing daily" (NBC News):

Taiwan and Nuclear Weapons (from the centrist National Interest):

And this month's joint military exercise between Russia and China is certainly not ideal (from The Defense Post):
 

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We are at a critical moment in history when the US military has to keep its eye on the ball. Watch Taiwan now that Biden's ineptitude has been so starkly exhibited in Afghanistan. Note these recent articles:

Sword rattling directed at Japan over Taiwan (from China Daily, the Chinese propaganda outlet):

Chinese media chief calls for war against the US over Taiwan (American Military News):

International fallout from Biden's Afghanistan disaster (from Australia):

China's threat against Taiwan "growing daily" (NBC News):

Taiwan and Nuclear Weapons (from the centrist National Interest):

And this month's joint military exercise between Russia and China is certainly not ideal (from The Defense Post):
The last one is the one we as a nation need to pay attention to because we may well be the target.
 
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I do not think there is the political will in the US or anywhere else to militarily oppose a Red Chinese invasion of Taiwan. And the CCP has insinuated (by design) itself so thoroughly into world economics that there will no recourse politically or economically. Taiwan will put the hurt on the Reds initially, but they will eventually succumb while the world sits by and does nothing but wring it's collective hands.
 

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I do not think there is the political will in the US or anywhere else to militarily oppose a Red Chinese invasion of Taiwan. And the CCP has insinuated (by design) itself so thoroughly into world economics that there will no recourse politically or economically. Taiwan will put the hurt on the Reds initially, but they will eventually succumb while the world sits by and does nothing but wring it's collective hands.
It is so stupid, too. If we wanted to fight China, we could. Vietnam, South Korea, India, Nepal, Taiwan, the Philippines, Mongolia, Japan, and most of Eastern Europe would fight in a heartbeat.


 

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I am sure those brave stalwarts in the UN Security Council will screw up their courage, and send the CCP a polite but sternly worded Letter Of Protest! 😆
 
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